If you've tried to reorder matcha recently and found prices higher, lead times longer, or your usual supplier out of stock — you're not imagining it. The global wholesale matcha market is in the middle of its most significant supply disruption in recorded history. This article explains what's happening, why it's not a short-term blip, and specifically what steps cafe owners and B2B buyers should take to protect their supply and their margins.
What's actually happening: the numbers
The data is stark. Tencha — the whole-leaf tea that is dried, destemmed, and ground into matcha — saw its trading price in Kyoto increase by 265% between 2024 and 2025. That is the largest single-year price jump in the recorded history of the Japanese tea industry. Handpicked Uji tencha averaged 43,330 JPY/kg by late 2025. Machine-picked tencha surged 269%. These are not rounding errors — they are structural market events.
At the same time, Japan's total green tea exports surged 42% in fiscal 2025 to 13,125 metric tons, while the export value doubled to \84.7 billion. More demand, tighter supply. The basic economics are brutal.
On the buyer side, U.S. cafe owners who relied on spot purchasing through distributors and trading companies are reporting wait times that ballooned from 1–2 months to 6 months for popular grades. Some are simply unable to source the volume they need at any price.
Why this happened — the three causes
1. Demand exploded faster than supply could respond
Matcha's mainstream moment in the U.S. was not a gradual trend — it was a vertical spike. TikTok, Starbucks menu additions, and a wave of independent cafes adding matcha drinks drove consumption growth that Japan's tea farming infrastructure was simply not designed to absorb at this pace.
2. Climate damage hit the highest-quality growing regions hardest
Record heatwaves and irregular rainfall during the 2024 and 2025 early-spring shading periods — the critical weeks when tencha leaves are covered to develop chlorophyll and amino acids — caused yield declines of up to 40% in Uji, Japan's most prestigious growing region. You cannot simply move a harvest to next month. If the shading window is disrupted, the crop is disrupted.
3. The structural supply ceiling is real and slow to change
Growing high-quality tencha is not like growing corn. It takes over five years to develop a productive tea field from new planting. Japan's tea farming workforce is aging with limited replacement. And the conversion of existing farmland to tencha-suitable cultivation is constrained by geography and expertise. Supply will not double in two years. It may not recover meaningfully before 2028.
What happens next — the shortage deepens before it eases
The shortage is expected to continue tightening through August 2026, when the 2026 spring harvest sets the pool of available tencha for the following year. Early indications suggest 2026's harvest will be better than 2025's, but not enough to reverse the structural imbalance.
In practice, this means three things for buyers:
- Prices will remain elevated. Anyone selling matcha at 2023–2024 prices is either subsidizing losses, liquidating old stock, or sourcing from lower-quality or non-Japanese origins without disclosing it.
- Spot purchasing is increasingly risky. Buyers who depend on ordering when they run out will continue facing stockouts and long lead times.
- Supplier relationships are now a competitive advantage. Manufacturers who have direct, long-standing farm relationships can secure allocations. Those who don't are competing on the open market for shrinking supply.
What cafe owners and procurement buyers should do right now
Stop relying on spot orders
If your current model is “order when I'm running low,” the shortage has made this untenable. You need committed forward supply, even if it's just one or two months of buffer stock.
Get on a subscription or supply agreement
A monthly committed volume — even at 5–10kg — gives your supplier the signal they need to hold allocation for you at the manufacturer level. Without this signal, you are treated as a spot buyer and will wait behind committed partners when supply is constrained. Learn more about our Matcha Haru subscription for cafes.
Ask your supplier the hard questions
- Do you source direct from farms, or through a trading company?
- Do you have a confirmed allocation for your current grade through Q4 2026?
- Can you show me your COA from the most recent lot — and the one before that?
If your supplier cannot answer clearly, they may not have the upstream relationships to protect your supply. See our guide on buying matcha direct from a Japanese manufacturer.
Lock pricing where you can
Some manufacturers are able to offer fixed pricing on committed volumes for 3–6 months. This is worth pursuing now, before the August harvest sets the next price cycle.
Consider geographic supply diversification
Uji (Kyoto) was hardest hit because it's the smallest, most premium region. Kagoshima and Shizuoka — larger growing regions with slightly different climate profiles — were less affected. A supplier who sources across multiple regions has more resilience than one dependent on a single origin. Read our comparison of Shizuoka vs Kagoshima matcha.
How Yuminaga is approaching this
We've operated in this industry for over 30 years. We've seen difficult harvests, currency swings, and trade disruptions before — though nothing on this scale.
Our approach is direct farm relationships in Kagoshima and Shizuoka — not spot purchasing on the tencha trading market. We blend across multiple harvest lots and multiple farms, which means a yield decline in one region doesn't create a gap in what we ship to you.
For our committed wholesale partners on the Matcha Haru subscription, we have prioritized their allocations throughout this period. None of our subscription partners experienced a stockout or an unannounced price change in 2025–2026.
We are not immune to the market — our costs have risen, and we've been honest with partners about that. But we are able to plan, communicate, and deliver because we're the manufacturer, not a reseller reacting to a market we don't control.
The action checklist
- Audit your current matcha inventory and calculate weeks of supply on hand
- Contact your supplier and ask specifically about their allocation status through Q4 2026
- If you're on spot ordering, move to a committed monthly volume now
- Request COAs from recent lots to verify origin consistency
- If you're open to evaluating suppliers, request samples and ask the questions in this article